| Desktop PC: Intel Says the End is Near |
| Articles - Opinion & Editorials | ||
| Written by Olin Coles | ||
| Wednesday, 23 January 2013 | ||
Desktop PC: Intel Says the End is NearBack on August 2010, I made a prediction: desktop PCs have an expiration date, and that time may not be far off. I followed-up that article with several more editorials, arguing on both sides of the position that enthusiast desktop PCs would be killed by unnecessary overclocking products, but might later possibly be saved by enthusiast-level overclocking products. Both had their points, and both contained plenty of truth, but when I published the statistical obituary a few weeks later our readers commented in revolt. Even some of my industry peers said I was pessimistic, and that the enthusiast desktop PC industry would continue to thrive and grow. We disagreed, even as mounting evidence supported my claims. Intel's launch of Sandy Bridge processors around January 2011 really put a chill in the air, which made it tough for heatsink manufacturers to turn a profit. With no money involved, the aftermarket cooling industry evaporated and only a few major players with other cross-platform products would survive. I would later publish The State of Intel Desktop Motherboards, and in that article written two years ago I predicted key points that would prove themselves essential for Intel to sustain desktop motherboard development:
Based on an announcement made earlier today, it turns out my prediction was dead on. Intel has just announced the end of the desktop platform, or rather a slow three-year wind-down toward an end by 2016. It turns out that mobile phones, tablet devices, notebook computers, and console video game systems were killing the desktop PC platform faster than games like Call of Duty, Medal of Honor, or Battlefield could recharge the desktop user base with stunning graphics and addictive gameplay. Intel knew this, as they monitored their own production of components for competing platforms, and today's announcement marked the official beginning of the end for their desktop motherboard business:
What this means to consumers is that desktop PC enthusiasts will still have options, but only as many as vendors such as ASUS, GIGABYTE, and MSI can afford to produce. Since sales of desktop PC hardware are so low, there's very little profit to be made and these vendors may follow Intel's lead by making a complete exit. Most of these vendors have already safely diversified their product portfolio with new concentration towards mobile devices, peripherals, and network appliances. While some would argue that the enthusiast desktop PC platform still exists because of overclocking, the out-of-the-box performance of today's desktop processor proves this to be a false notion. In reality, the desktop PC platform only still exists because it can delivery graphics performance unavailable elsewhere. This translates to professional tools for some, but the majority of consumers spend money on hardware to support video games. Until the XBOX720 and PS4 gaming consoles can revive PC video games, there's no point in upgrading anymore. Even less reason if you have faith in NVIDIA's GeForce GRID project. So now we've come back around full circle: I predicted this back in August 2010 and wrote a myriad of editorials in support of my claims, only to have Intel do exactly what I feared almost three years later. Unfortunately for our readers, time is ticking, and in three more years (less actually) the options will be few and far between. COMMENT QUESTION: If desktop PCs disappear, what will you do next?
Related Articles:
|
||
Comments
I also find it ironic that while all these other platforms try to be a desktop i.e. smart phones, laptops, netbooks, nettops, consoles etc etc the actual platform they're trying to replace is growing weaker.
Personally I believe too much pressure was put on the enthusiast and not enough on game companies. You only buy bleeding edge hardware to run great games. When was the last time you could actually call a game 'great' or 'amazing'?
The problem I see is the push for Consoles while more cost friendly to devs and hardware makers (even though 3rd party companies loose in the long run, look at what Sega in the 90's, more systems doesn't mean better, and if the PC dies, how else are all the Motherboard companies going to compete outside of the Mobile/Tablet market? Would they all just dry up their component departments and release only full systems?
The Future sounds still uncertain but in this day of a crap Economy, dragging console hardware progress, and only the Indy devs really pushing PC games that aren't just multiplatform crap, I can understand the move Intel is looking to make.
Hopefully something will help turn it back around because once the ability to build your own system dries up, it will be a sad day indeed. Then again, that could be an invitation shortly after for another company to rise in the market and prove Intel wrong.
There IS A Push for more performance.
The fact is that 4K Resolutions will require HUGE amounts of Data to reproduce and send, store data on disks and will require much faster internet connections to download content. The TB will become the GB and the GB will become the MB and the MB the KB and so on.
It will take Much more powerful CPUs to Process this info and much stronger graphics to display it without refresh issues and lag.
Also, as the Video Games resolutions get higher and more detailed(AND THEY WILL) when game makers start making 64 Bit based games instead of 32 Bit based games.
Imagine it took Microsoft a slick act to get most people off of 32 bit Operating systems so that Game makers and such could switch to making 64 bit games and software that would a! ctually make a profit to produce because as it stood if they had produced 64 bit games they wouldn't had sold much because people with 32 bit OSes wouldn't have been able to use the games or software!
Things are moving progressively and fast. They are not ending anything.
In fact, I bet soon the Computer will get smaller and will use less energy, but I guarantee you that it will still be modular and you will still want to watch it on a great LARGE SCREEN when you are at home!!
The Desktop will end ONLY When this technology is available...
##youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38
There is SO MUCH MORE to be done with the Desktop. Because there is NO DAMN WAY I will play games on a tablet or Laptop when I like the skill of a Keyboard and mouse. Two handed action. Screw the Handheld Controller!
I believe this is a NONSENSE Ad that has to do with Intels Motherboard Line because its always sucked and the Writer is usin! g it to mislead people into him being right about some predict! ion.
The fact is, I sit at a desk and do my job. AT A DESKTOP! I would hate to have to trade in my High end graphics one year for some Intel ONBOARD graphics.
I don't care of they do match AMDs graphics based APUs or CPUS with graphic ability or surpass AMD and call them Intel Graphics 10,000,000 I STILL WANT MY DESKTOP for Business and encoding video and watching movies online.
tower makers need to get with the times, people still want updatability, value and quietness (3 things only towers still provide) AND something pleasing to the eye if its going to be as big as a piece of furniture. %99 of the towers I see just make me shudder as an appreciator of form generally.
the environment is more of a concern now also, throwing away a whole computer and or a monitor is such a waste compared to just upgrading the cpu or gpu etc.
Without software DVs in a corporate form as of the present day, games that are quality will be few.
There will always be a PC (in some form).
There will always be games.
But will there always be consoles?
However, I do regret that some PC users take advantage of the tech. that they have access to. This is the undermining of a great privilege, considering gaming entertainment.
I read your blog as un-optimistic.
If the day the gamer PC is over than I will just play board games.
LOL Massive Multiplayer board games. That would be fun.
Than again if Intel just dropped making motherboards themselves, not many people would be hurt. Though their latest X79 board looks downright wicked.
If, however, chipsets are needed once again I'm sure nvidia would be more than happy to take the job and continue the contracted work they once had.
And Intel didn't say they were going to stop making chipsets. They say they were going to stop making motherboards.
That's because no one buys them anyway and they are a waste.
They don't only make chipsets because they make motherboards.
I agreed with this when Olin first posted it, and I agree now because the trend with any technology is to get smaller, and smaller means cooler too. The only ting that needs to be solved is (1) small screen factor and (2) graphics power needs for games. (2) is already solved (from a economic POV)--it's called a console. In the near future, if you want to game, you're going to be doing it exclusively on a console. The larger screen thing is going to be harder--holographic glasses?
Like anything, desktops are ending because of advancements in tech. 4"x6" boxes for computing is the next trend, and then after that, eyeglass sized computers, and after that, super-computers embedded in your cortex, the size of a bacterium.
Further, consoles don't solve your graphics need since they lack the power to use high res textures and high poly environments. they also have limited draw distance and poor performance the more on screen assets you have to draw and render. To boot by the time they hit the market the tech in them is already 2-4 gens out of date.
The only thing consoles solve, which isn't on your list, is the ease of creation for devs since the hardware is always the same. Devs don't have to put as much work in since they don't have to optimize the game for a wide array of varying hardware.
the article's assumptions are good and so are the conclusion, deal with it.
You don't realize it but the effects are already out there:
- the power/performance sweet spot for today's cpu families is designed for mobile devices. Desktop cpu are much slower than they could be nowadays because they're just part of a family of chips designed with the mobile landscape in mind. Diversification is the key. Nobody will admit they are ditching desktop PCs, but if you look closely you'll notice nobody focuses on it either, they just try to find the balance between the markets.
- games are developed for 6 years old hardware and the benefit of running them on nowadays hardware is not big enough
People don't buy PCs over console 'because they're upgradable' or 'because they have new tech', only enthusiasts do that.
Less money in the market (and more importantly, the forecast of less and less money) means less companies willing to risk for a slice of that tiny share, and less solutions tailored for a niche of that niche (high end overclocking mobos, heatsinks, watercooling).
Most of nVidia and ATI revenue used to come from low-end graphics cards, now integrated gpu drained that market and it's not surprising nVidia is pulling out the Grid systems (again, diversification, trying to be ready for the future possible evolutions of the market, not focusing on a single market that's bound to die).
That said, I hate consoles and love my oced 3570K and 7970, but it doesn't stop me from seeing the big picture clearly.
As a tech enthusiast it might be hard for you to conceive the death of faster technology in favor of an apparently worse one, but faster doesn't always mean better.
I would go into my 'real gamers' argument but since anyone who buys each CoD title falls into that I won't go there.
Point being, there will always be a market for a desktop form-factor pc. While faster may not always be better not everyone cares to carry around mobile systems, i.e. psv, gameboys, grids plus phones and w/e else you lug around consoles are too limiting and server side streaming services are too impractical in ! 90% of cases. Ergo desktop systems will most likely be around for a long while.
Then also factor in slow adoption. The bulk of offices I visit are still using Windows XP on most of their machines, on Pentium 4 era desktops. Even if the desktop market were to go belly up suddenly and without warning, you might not even see the true effect for who knows how long! Look how long it took to get 64-bit to its current market penetration, which is still lower than it probably should be.
The trend that we are seeing now is smaller, less power consumption and more processing power. OS, Games and Application programmers are seeing this and adapting their style to this trend. If PC is to stay, modular peripherals, they need to make it smaller and powerful. Look at ARM development board, This is the new PC configurations.
When the market dries up the stunts are gone and only the key market players stand as the people who buy are the ones who actually research and care about the best performances.
I develop on multiple Virtual Machines. Dev Environments love memory. With a custom built system I can have 64GB (SB-E) or 32GB (Ivy Bridge) for less than $3K.
Dell, HP & co rarely supply systems that support that much RAM. And when they do the RAM costs as much as an entire system I can build myself.
They seen to think that no one needs that much RAM. So as I'm a niche market I should pay a huge premium. Alternatively they want me to buy their Server kit. Which comes with noise, air con needs & excessive power consumption.
Intel motherboards, while usually rock solid, are not true enthusiasts overclocking boards and thereby are a loss-leader making practically zero profit for Intel.
So, no more Intel branded boards. So what? That certainly does NOT mean that other manufacturers will not continue to produce their usual desktop boards for the foreseeable future.
The end of Intel brand boards will be a boon for Intel. They'll continue to rake in profits from all their other products.
I'd advise that you take a series of chill pills and relax.
Overclockers and other enthusiasts ! have nothing to fear at all.
Of course, I'm quite sure that you knew this all along and are just trying to stir up your readership for some unknown reason.
Either that, or you need someone to read to you the article you quoted from Intel. Slowly. So you may comprehend all that it actually says.
Intel mobos are going bye-bye. That's it. ASUS, Gigabyte, MSI, etc. will continue to produce our motherboards until they're no longer profitable. To do otherwise would be corporate suicide. Something frowned upon by both the Chinese and their honorable ancestors.
We all know what desktops can do. It can do all the things mobile cannot do. It can even do what notebook cannot do, unless you hook up a larger screen and a real keyboard to it, thus making it a desktop. The gaming PC has run its course of up and and now slowing - it is a niche after all.
But even when the gaming PC market goes to zero, the desktop is still king and there will continue to be major players. Because (1) the desktop, which include workstations, are the only platform that can create content. Content that professionals make a living. And because (2) the PC open architecture! is the only computer on Earth that one can custom build from retail components. It is therefore most flexible, most powerful, most general or special purpose, and most cost-effective.
I am a professional working in my home office. I have 10 PCs. 2 powerful workstations running big apps, 2 running office and less demanding apps, 1 media PC for home theater, 1 media PC for my audiophile system, 3 server PCs to manage content and do some net hosting, and 1 PC managing other PCs and networks. I have one laptop for travels. I don't do Apple stuff. I don't have a gaming PC. And don't tell me the desktop is dead!
The end of intel desktop motherboards don't would say the end of the desktop pc's still there are Amd i'm sure that there is a big market, pc memories, coolers, cases, that have interest in desktop pc's will survive.
I sure can't as I shelled out 6 years ago on a Quad Core Q9800, Asus Stricker MB, 16Gb Ram, 8800 Ultra GPU in an ugly PC case. But I do buy parts as the original components were a lemon.
I started my computing life during the Commodore Amiga era to my first Intel based PC around 1998 where I took my workbench hacks to making game legal hacks, Trainers and ethical game mods wanting to understand how everything works and I still do this today.
I feel people now have to get involved in how their OS works. How the games work around a Game Engine and most importantly being creative because today's kids are stuck happy with Apple/ IPhone / IPads that are used as a house hold ! gadget that does not inspire creatively at all. This will lead to our true future of a none creative culture where we are going to get to a point where programmers like me are going to become a very rare breed. This is where games and hardware companies in the end suffer.
You! only have to look back over the last 20 yrs to see the cyclical nature of device...micro phones to tablet phones....and most likely back down again.
You cant say you predicted a future that hasn't happened yet.
And now back to my latest project a Commodore C-16 with AMD apu, SSD and 8gb of ram..it matters little if the masses are herded into a closet full of white uninteresting devices. I see people innovating, re-cycling and many twists and turns down the road.
My point being, that this office pretty much sums up the reality of how offices operate. If it ain't broke, they see no need to "upgrade". Many WILL replace their old hardware on a rolling basis every few years, but that's to minimize worn-out hardware. They don't WANT "upgrades", they want more of exactly the same stuff as they've had for two years.. but new. Which is pretty much exactly the opposite of what Gamers want! For hardware manufacturers (and component manufacturers), the REAL money is in the pockets of the clients who'll walk into their showroom every two years and will buy a few THOU! SAND units. Not Joe Soap who wants just the ONE item.
They didn't dream up personal computing, or desktops - they used them to make money.If they want to make money elsewhere let em. They have a number of defense contracts that make 'em money - always big bucks in killing women and children.
When have any of you been able to go to the shop and buy and nVidia GPU, I'm not talking about a card from EVGA, ASUS, MSI. But an actual nVidia Card? Never because only OEMs get them. And they are not as good as cards from their board partners.
All Intel have been doing all these years is flogging a dead horse putting out their own motherboards. They don't sell because you and I won't buy them. Am I right? Majority here Asus, Gigabyte, MSI?
They are not going to flush their desktop segment down the toilet, Desktop Cpus are a huge part of their business. Imagine how much money they will loose by giving us builders the flick.
So it makes sense for! them to stop manufacturing motherboards that only OEM's use. People who buy "off the shelf" PCs from HP, Dell, Acer never upgrade, they'll hold on to a pc for 6-7 years we upgrade every 2-3 years. And the only thing we buy from Intel is a CPU, some of us might get one of their SSDs.
So chill out, people like us = Big bucks regularly. And our favorite board partners will get a reference designs to base their motherboards off. Much like EVGA gets reference designs from nVidia and Sapphire from AMD.
Yes, like RealDeal my network is a SoHo deal with as many as 12-14 PC's on the network at times and an NAS for file storage. At my desk sits a OC'd 2600k (4.8Ghz) w/ twin 560 Ti's OC'd above 1000 Mhz. And yet, when I sit down to do some gaming, more often than not, I'd rather sit in a comfortable chair with my lappie on a snack table than walk upstairs to the desktop.
(675mx) card and I don't get the same fps as I'd get on the desktop, but Id rather be comfortable and get 50 fps than walk upstairs and sit at my desk to get 100 fps. BTW, I'm just as comfortable on the lappie using a US! B mouse for two hand play.
Though I enjoy building PC's and tweaking them up just to see how far I can OC everything (and then dropping a notch or two for everyday use)practically speaking, I really don't need the extra oomph that the desktop provides. AutoCAD 14 runs just fine on the lappie. Previous versions were a bit slow to load but that problem is gone with the hybrid SSD / HD storage (Seagate Momentus. And as I said, I really don't see the difference in gaming .... the only game in recent months that I bothered to walk upstairs for was Batman AC which benefited from the 3D monitor and SLI (which by the way were both options for the lappie that I didn't take).
PC sales worldwide have tumbled, data from IDC shows:
bbc.co.uk/news/business-22103079
For me, I still prefer a desktop as it has so many uses that I can do most conveniently. I'd rather play games using a keyboard and a mouse with so much control. Encode using my keyboard as touchscreen tablets covers the screen as I type on the screen and it really sucks on games.
I can't say consoles are cheaper as it is only for games or internet. I can't encode my documents there. Somehow it is convenient in some ways like tablets do as I can't bring my desktop and use the internet while I'm on travel.
Consoles, Cellphones, Tablets and whatnot are just parts and parcel of a desktop PC, if you will buy them all you surely spend much more than a desktop PC. I'm using my PC for surround sound, TV, office works, movies, games(I can play latest games and I still can play old ones which consoles cannot do), internet, photo album, mixing music, photo editing, sound editing. Now if it will be available on 4x6 console with convenience that would really be an awkward/great one. Imagine having a console with keyboard to type characters conveniently, a tablet with 27" screen for movies or cellphone that comes along with a real 7.1 cabinet speakers.
Again they are just parts and parcel of a PC and designed for certain consumers who may want only a certain feature of a PC (that's good for them) but people are not the same. Our wants varies and as long as these wants varies companies will find ways to get along with that.
Honestly, I would still prefer real games, talking to real people, and exchanging feelings in person. Actual interaction :)